After adjusting for seasonal differences, delinquency deteriorated. But the unadjusted rate showed an improvement. Delinquency in one West Coast state was lower, but its two coastal neighbors faced a higher rate.
Total delinquency of at least 30 days, including the foreclosure inventory, was 14.01 percent during the first quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported today. The unadjusted rate was an improvement from 15.02 percent as of Dec. 31.
On annually adjusted basis, total delinquency was 14.69 percent, worse than 14.05 percent three months earlier and 12.97 percent a year earlier.
“The issue this quarter is that the seasonally adjusted delinquency rates went up while the unadjusted rates went down,” MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann stated in the report. “The question is whether the drop represents anything more than a normal seasonal decline or a more fundamental improvement.”
The seasonally adjusted first-quarter figure reflected a 90-day rate of 5.02 percent and a foreclosure inventory of 4.63 percent.
On just prime mortgages, total adjusted delinquency was 10.73 percent, up from the fourth quarter’s 10.04 percent. The prime adjusted 90-day rate was 3.73, while the prime foreclosure inventory finished March at 3.41 percent.
Seasonally adjusted FHA delinquency was 17.08 percent, easing from the prior quarter’s 17.14 percent. The March 31 adjusted figure reflected a 90-day rate of 5.27 percent and a 3.93 percent foreclosure inventory.
After MBA’s adjustment, the subprime rate was 42.60 percent, worsening from 40.84 percent at the end of last year. Adjusted first-quarter subprime lates reflected 14.97 percent in 90-day loans and a foreclosure inventory of 15.39 percent.
“For several years, the four states of Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and California have dominated the national delinquency and foreclosure numbers,” Brinkmann added. “Florida is still getting worse, but California is showing signs of improvement.
“However, Washington, Maryland, Oregon, and Georgia showed the greatest overall increases in foreclosures started compared to last quarter.”
