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Nonprime Borrowers Expected to Re-Emerge

60-day delinquency down 23 BPS in Q3

Nov. 12, 2013

By Mortgage Daily staff

The latest reading on residential loan performance showed improvement, and more of the same is expected. The report predicted that an expected decline in originations will bring out more nonprime borrowers.

Residential borrowers who were at least 60 days past due on their home loans accounted for 4.09 percent of all mortgage borrowers in the third quarter.

The delinquency rate was better than in the second quarter, when the 60-day delinquency rate stood at 4.32 percent.

TransUnion, which reported the performance statistics, revised the second quarter rate from its original report that indicated it was 4.09 percent.

A spokesman explained that while the Chicago-based company previously used only a sample of its database that included 27 million consumers with and without mortgages, it now utilizes its entire database for the delinquency numbers --which includes 52 million mortgage borrowers.

Delinquency was 5.33 percent a year earlier, revised down from the 5.41 percent rate originally reported.

"TransUnion is forecasting that the downward consumer delinquency trend will continue in the final three months of 2013," the report said. "The delinquency rate will likely be just under 4 percent at the end of the year."

By state, the biggest year-over-year decline in delinquency was in California, where the 60-day rate fell to 3.40 percent from 5.53 percent -- a 38.5 percent improvement.

Arizona was next, with its delinquency rate declining by 38.1 percent to 3.52 percent, then Nevada, which saw a 32.2 percent decline to 7.28 percent.

Outstanding mortgages numbered 52.31 million as of the third quarter, down from 54.23 million in the same period last year, according to the report. There had been as many as 63.14 million outstanding home loans in the third-quarter 2008.

TransUnion said there were 2.34 million loans originated during the second quarter, rising from 2.09 million in the second-quarter 2012.

The share of mortgages considered nonprime -- borrowers with VantageScores less than 700 -- has fallen to 5.82 percent as of the second quarter from 12.69 percent in the same quarter during 2008.

"New originations will be down and nonprime borrowers will start to re-emerge," Tim Martin, group vice president of U.S Housing for TransUnion's financial services business unit, said in the announcement.

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