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Delinquency Projected to Fall Over 100 BPS

TransUnion had rate falling to 4.98% next year

Dec. 7, 2010

By MortgageDaily.com staff


Late payments on home loans are expected to end the year 23 basis points lower than at the end of the third quarter. By the end of next year, the rate is expected to tumble another 123 BPS.

A report Tuesday from TransUnion indicated that 60-day mortgage delinquency will be 6.21 percent as of Dec. 31.

TransUnion, which maintains a database of around 27 million consumer records, previously reported that the third-quarter rate was 6.44 percent.

The projected quarterly decline by TransUnion comes despite a 2-basis-point rise in 90-day delinquency reported for October by Freddie

At the end of last year, TransUnion said that delinquency was 6.89 percent.

The Chicago-based company predicts that the rate of late payments will tumble to 4.98 percent by the end of 2011.

Steve Chaouki, group vice president in TransUnion's financial services business unit, explained in the report that the improvement will be driven by a slow decline in unemployment and a stabilization of the housing market -- with some markets seeing an increase in property values.

"This is a welcome contrast to the year-over-year increases of 54 percent between 2006 and 2007, 53 percent between 2007 and 2008 and 50 percent between 2008 and 2009," today's report said.

All states are expected to participate in the improvement -- with the hardest-hit states of Arizona, Florida and Nevada leading the way. Still, the three states will end next year with the highest delinquency rates.

The projection has North Dakota at a delinquency rate of 1.12 percent by December 2011 -- the lowest of any state projection.

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