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Limited Holiday Cheer for Lodging in CMBS

NEW YORK, Sta & Poor's (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Dec. 20, 2001--Standard & Poor's announced today that there was a large increase in lodging mortgage delinquencies in the CMBS sector during the fourth quarter of 2001.

In fact, delinquencies during the last quarter of 2001 doubled to a rate of 3.8%, up from 1.9% in June 2001. In contrast, the delinquency rate of mortgages on all property types in Standard & Poor's rated CMBS universe is 1.3%.

Aside from the spike in lodging delinquency rates during the fourth quarter, Standard & Poor's reports that the dollar level of mortgage delinquencies remained relatively stable through November 2001. At that point, lodging delinquencies rose to $700 million, up from $350 million in October 2001.

"During the last quarter of 2001, the lodging industry's operating performance deteriorated dramatically from the previous year's level," said Peter Kozel, director of real estate research at Standard & Poor's. "Revenue per available room (RevPAR) was down by more than 15%. This collapse has contributed to a large jump in lodging loan delinquencies."

Given the increase in delinquencies, the ratings of three transactions have been placed on CreditWatch during the last few weeks, according to "Limited Holiday Cheer for Lodging in CMBS," an article released today. The complete article is available on RatingsDirect, Standard & Poor's Web-based credit analysis system, and on Standard & Poor's Ratings Services Web site at www.standardandpoors.com.

"Lodging loans on Florida properties currently have the highest delinquency rate, and RevPAR in both the Miami and Orlando markets is down by just more than 25%," Mr. Kozel said. "However, this is not the full story, because the increase in the supply of lodging rooms during the last three years is also having an effect on the percentage of mortgage delinquencies in the various regional markets."

Standard & Poor's expects that the anticipated economic recovery is likely to be delayed in most of the regional markets in California and the Northeast. Standard & Poor's anticipates that RevPAR will decline an additional 3% to 5% in 2002 from the level in 2001. Consequently, even though the current level of delinquencies is quite low in these markets, there is a significant chance that an additional wave of delinquencies on lodging loans may emerge during the second half of 2002.

Standard & Poor's, New York
John Kemp

Roy Chun

Peter P. Kozel, Ph.D.

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