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Distressed Inventory Clear Times Down in Judicial States

Time to clear out U.S. distressed inventory down 5 months in Q3

Nov. 27, 2013

By Mortgage Daily staff

The amount of time it would take to clear out the distressed inventories of real estate in states that force lenders to foreclose through the courts has improved again. The news, however, wasn't so good for non-judicial states or the country as a whole.

The time to clear the U.S. distressed inventory was 49 months in the third quarter.

Distressed inventory includes first mortgages that are at least 90 days past due, in foreclosure or real estate owned as well as half of first mortgages that have been at least 90 days delinquent during the past 12 months but were cured or modified.

The latest reading was five months longer than in the previous quarter. The second-quarter timeline was revised up to 44 months from 41 months originally reported.

The findings were taken from the report, Q3 2013 Morningstar RMBS Distressed Inventory Index: Months to Clear Inventories in Judicial States Improving in Last Two Quarters While Inventories Continue to Grow Nationally, from Morningstar Credit Ratings LLC. The data for the report was sourced from CoreLogic Inc.

"The current trend is similar to that presented in the previous quarter," the report said.

Compared to the same three-month period in 2012, the forecasted time to clear out the distressed inventory has worsened by 11 months.

The longer clear-out period reflects slower liquidation rates.

In non-judicial foreclosure states, the time to clear out the distressed inventory was 38 months, longer than the 32 months in the second quarter.

But in judicial foreclosure states, the number of months fell to 61 from 63. It was the second quarter in a row that judicial state timelines were lower.

Despite the longer clearing times, the overall distressed inventory was down 5 percent from the second quarter to 891,000 units. The number of units has fallen by 20 percent over the past year.

In addition, the number of liquidations has fallen 39 percent from a year earlier. The report said that total distressed liquidation as a share of total paid-off continues to decline.

"The distressed inventory in judicial states accounts for approximately 57 percent of the total distressed inventory, compared to 43 percent since the beginning of 2008," the ratings agency said.

The report also indicated that the use of short sales is declining, while loan modification activity is being sustained.

The distressed inventory share in New Jersey was nearly 45 percent -- higher than any other state. Florida was next, then New York, Maine and Illinois.

With a share of around 12 percent, Colorado's was lowest.

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