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Fitch: 2002 CMBS Issuance To Decline In US, Rise Abroad

NEW YORK, Jan 24, 2002 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Fitch expects non-U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) issuance to increase from the past year's $23 billion while domestic issuance declines by 15%, according to an article in the international rating agency's latest CMBS newsletter "Real Estate Update."

"The current recession has caused stresses in property operations, which are expected to continue to spread to more properties and markets," said Janet Price, group managing director, Fitch. "Originators may find it difficult to underwrite cash flows producing loan proceeds attractive to borrowers."

In a separate article, Fitch notes that terrorism insurance for many assets included in CMBS securitizations will generally be unavailable. Origination and securitization of large loan products is likely to be affected by the U.S. government's year-end failure to resolve the issues surrounding terrorism insurance.

"Fitch is establishing new criteria that will likely only deem terrorism risk material in cases in which a major event could have a significant impact on increasing defaults for a property," said Susan Merrick, managing director, Fitch. "Fitch anticipates including in its ratings measures of both the probability that an underinsured event could occur and the risk of it happening at that specific asset."

Other topics in the latest newsletter include an update on the notching of CMBS ratings for collateralized debt obligation (CDO) analysis, an evaluation of CMBS ratings migration by vintage, a snapshot of the office market, and an analysis of the Fitch Loan Delinquency Index.

The complete "CMBS Real Estate Update" is available on the Fitch web site at www.fitchratings.com and can be found in the newsletters section of the web page corresponding with the CMBS sector. Users of Portfolio Update, an e-mail notification service, will receive notice of future editions of the quarterly "Real Estate Update." For more information about this service, please contact Product Sales at 1-212-908-0800.


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