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Origination News | Lender Ranking | Fundings by Lender | Statistics
Quarterly residential mortgage production by lender. Subprime, Alt-A, home equity and conforming originations. Volume by quarter since 2003.

2010 Originations Expected to Fall 20%

$1.6 trillion in 2010 production projected

Feb. 16, 2010

By staff

The forecast for residential production has been cut, and U.S. originations are expected to fall by one-fifth this year.

First-quarter residential originations are forecasted by Freddie Mac to reach $375 billion, according to the secondary lender's February 2010 Economic and Housing Market Outlook. Freddie lowered its first-quarter forecast from $381 billion last month.

The latest projection is a decline from an estimated $450 billion in the fourth-quarter 2009 and $450 billion estimated for the first-quarter 2009.

First-quarter conventional production is predicted to tumble to $280 billion from the prior quarter's $340 billion, while government activity is forecasted to fall to $95 billion from $110 billion.

During all of 2010, Freddie said volume is expected to reach $1.6 trillion, declining from an estimated $2.0 trillion last year. Last month's forecast had this year's originations pegged at $1.75 trillion.

Conventional business is expected to account for $1.2 trillion of 2010's business, while government fundings will reach $400 billion.

Refinances are expected to represent 70 percent of first-quarter production, falling from the previous period's 79 percent. The full year's refinance share is expected to fall to half from three-quarters last year.

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