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Origination News | Lender Ranking | Fundings by Lender | Statistics
Quarterly residential mortgage production by lender. Subprime, Alt-A, home equity and conforming originations. Volume by quarter since 2003.

Outlook Improves for Refinances

2013 origination forecast raised 9%

March 28, 2013

By Mortgage Daily staff

Just a month after the annual forecast for refinance originations was reduced, it was boosted by more than $130 billion. The outlook for purchase financing, however, was lowered.

The latest origination estimate has total first-quarter mortgage volume of $490 billion falling to $469 billion in the second quarter and $380 billion in the third quarter.

Forecasted activity was lifted from last month, when U.S. mortgage production was expected to go from $451 billion to $430 billion then fall to $349 billion in the third quarter.

The projections were made by Fannie Mae in its Housing Forecast: March 2013.

Second-quarter refinance share was raised to 62 percent from 58 percent predicted by Fannie last month, while the third-quarter estimate expanded to 54 percent from 48 percent.

That put the outlook for second-quarter refinance production at $291 billion and the third-quarter forecast at $205 billion versus the $249 billion and $167 billion respectively forecasted in the previous outlook.

The second-quarter purchase forecast was trimmed to $179 billion from $180 billion, while the third-quarter purchase projection was lowered to $175 billion from $182 billion.

Fannie's estimate of full-year 2012 originations slipped to $1.925 trillion from the $1.926 trillion estimated in February.

This year's projection has been raised to $1.645 trillion from $1.507 trillion predicted last month.

The 2013 refinance number was raised to $1.027 trillion from $0.880 trillion, and the purchase financing forecast fell to $0.619 trillion from $0.628 trillion.

During 2014, Fannie predicts that total home-loan production will fall to $1.129 trillion, though that was more than the $1.117 trillion in originations expected in the prior outlook.

Fannie raised its 2014 expectations for refinances to $0.405 trillion from $0.386 trillion, while its projection for purchase production was pared to $0.725 trillion from $0.731 trillion.

The Washington, D.C.-based company indicated that the nation's collective mortgage portfolio finished last year at $9.924 trillion -- more than the $9.872 trillion it estimated last month. Around $9.154 trillion of the 2012 total was first-mortgages.

This year is expected to finish with $9.923 trillion in home loans, including $9.175 trillion mortgages in first lien position, while the 2014 total is expected to expand to $10.120 trillion, including $9.378 trillion in first mortgages.

Fannie has adjustable-rate mortgage share at 6 percent this year and 12 percent in 2014.

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