Fannie Mae has lowered its estimate for first-quarter fundings by all residential lenders. But projections have been pumped up for the current period’s production.
An economic outlook released today indicated that first-quarter originations by all U.S. lenders were an estimated $302 billion, lower than last month’s estimate of $321 billion.
During the current quarter, Fannie predicts production will peak at $361 billion then fall to $294 billion by the final quarter of this year. Last month’s forecast was more conservative — calling for $345 billion in second-quarter volume.
From Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, the Washington, D.C.-based firm forecasts $1.282 trillion in mortgage lending, more than the $1.277 trillion predicted last month. The latest outlook is for originations to climb to $1.524 trillion next year.
Fannie reported that second-quarter refinance share is estimated to have tumbled to 45 percent from nearly two-thirds in the first quarter.
Single-family mortgage debt outstanding will decline to $10.683 trillion this quarter from the first quarter’s $10.710 trillion.
