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Origination News | Lender Ranking | Fundings by Lender | Statistics
Quarterly residential mortgage production by lender. Subprime, Alt-A, home equity and conforming originations. Volume by quarter since 2003.

U.S. Origination Outlook Lifted

$400 billion in residential originations forecasted

Oct. 12, 2010

By staff

Projected home-loan production by U.S. lenders this year was boosted by $100 billion, while conventional activity is expected to outpace government business.

Fourth-quarter residential originations for all U.S. lenders are forecasted by Freddie Mac to come in at $400 billion. The outlook from the secondary lender improved from last month, when it had fourth-quarter activity coming in at only $345 billion.

Freddie estimated that $400 billion was also closed in the third quarter, rising from the second quarter's $368 billion. In the first three months of next year, volume is expected to settle back to $300 billion.

Mortgage originations insured by the Federal Housing Administration or guaranteed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs accounted for $100 billion of third-quarter projections, up from the prior period's $87 billion. Freddie predicts FHA and VA business will drop to $95 billion in the final quarter of this year.

Conventional mortgage production, on the other hand, is projected to rise to $305 billion in the fourth quarter from the third quarter's $300 billion and the second quarter's $281 billion.

Fourth-quarter refinance share of originations is expected to be nearly two-thirds, lower than the prior period's 70 percent. Adjustable-rate mortgage share was expected to remain at 6 percent during both quarters.

Freddie forecasts overall originations will reach $1.500 trillion during 2010 -- $100 billion more than the McLean, Va.-based firm predicted last month.

The latest projection is worse, however, than $2.000 trillion originated last year but better than the $1.300 trillion that is predicted for next year.

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