Expectations for this year’s residential loan originations have been nudged higher, while the boost to 2013’s outlook is more significant. Next year, outstanding mortgages are expected to fall below $10 trillion for the first time in eight years.
Mortgage bankers are projected to close $465 billion in home loans during the fourth quarter, less than the $547 billion estimated in third-quarter production.
The fourth-quarter projection inched up from $464 billion forecasted last month, while the third-quarter estimate was trimmed from $559 billion.
The predictions were made by Fannie Mae.
The outlook for the first-quarter 2012 was raised to $434 billion from $406 billion.
Zeroing in on just purchase financing, the third-quarter forecast was trimmed to $142 billion from $145 billion estimated last month. The fourth-quarter projection inched up to $128 billion from $126 billion.
Projected third-quarter refinances were reduced to $404 billion from $413 billion, and the fourth-quarter prediction slipped to $337 billion from $338 billion.
Refinance share is forecasted to ease from the third quarter’s 74 percent to 73 percent in the final three months of 2012 then inch up to 74 percent again in the first quarter of next year.
Full-year mortgage production is expected to decline from $1.809 trillion in 2012 to $1.542 trillion next year. Last month’s outlook had annual production falling from $1.792 trillion to $1.475 trillion.
Fannie expects total outstanding residential mortgages to fall from $10.005 trillion this year to $9.950 trillion in 2013.
The last time outstanding mortgages were less than $10 trillion was in 2004, when outstanding residential loans totaled $8.891 trillion according to data from Fannie’s former regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
The first-lien share of outstandings is expected by Fannie to be $9.212 trillion this year and $9.184 trillion in 2013.
