Rates Edge Higher

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.40%, or 4 basis points above a week ago, according to Freddie Mac’s latest survey of 125 mortgage-lending companies, thrifts and commercial banks. A year ago, the average was 25 BPS lower.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest outlook has the 30-year averaging 6.3% this quarter and increasing by 10 BPS each quarter thereafter to end 2007 at 6.7%. Freddie has the average at 6.4% this quarter and ending next year at 6.6%.

This week, 71 of the 100 mortgage “expert” panelists surveyed by Bankrate.com believed rates will remain relatively unchanged over the next month and a half or so and the rest predicted an upturn.

The 15-year averaged 6.10%, also 4 BPS higher than last week, Freddie said.

Longer-term mortgage rates followed the path of the 10-year Treasury note, which yielded 4.71% Thursday afternoon, or 3 BPS above a week earlier.

The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage average, at 6.14%, edged up 3 BPS within the past seven days, according to the survey.

Also up by 3 BPS, the average for 1-year Treasury-indexed ARMs came in at 5.60% this week. The 1-year T-Bill itself increased 4 BPS over a week to 5.08% Wednesday, according to Federal Reserve data.

On Wednesday, the Fed said it decided to keep the federal funds target at 5.25% for the third time, citing a slowdown in the housing market as part of the slowed economic growth over the course of the year. The Fed noted, however, that, going forward, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace.

The volume of 1003s edged up about 1% from the prior week, as a 2 percent increase in refinance requests overshadowed a 1 percent decrease in purchase money loan demand, MBA said Wednesday.

While the refinance share of mortgage activity nudged up to 46% during the week ending Oct. 20, the ARM share slipped to 26%, MBA added.