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| A slowdown in refinances, despite falling rates, dragged down overall mortgage activity.
Down two basis points from last week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.26% in Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest forecast has the 30-year averaging 6.2% this quarter, rising to 6.4% next quarter and to 6.7% for the remainder of 2006. The estimates are higher than those by Fannie Mae, which expects it to average 6.31% throughout next year, and Freddie, which sees it at that level through the first half and ending the year at 6.5%. “Mortgage rates are in a holding pattern at the moment as financial markets try to discern where inflation and growth in the economy are headed,” commented Freddie’s chief economist Frank Nothaft in a statement. “Until the market decides these issues, mortgage rates should stay within a relatively narrow band.” The Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest forecast has the 30-year averaging 6.2% this quarter, rising to 6.4% next quarter and to 6.7% for the remainder of 2006. The estimates are higher than those by Fannie Mae, which expects it to average 6.31% throughout next year, and Freddie, which sees it at that level through the first half and ending the year at 6.5%. Meanwhile, half the panel of 100 mortgage “experts” surveyed by Bankrate.com this week believe rates will increase over the next 35 to 45 days, while the rest are evenly split among those who expect rates to stay about the same (plus or minus 2 BPS) and those who think they’ll fall. The average for the 15-year this week reportedly remained at 5.81%, which is what the 30-year averaged a year ago. The gauge for long-term rates, the 10-year Treasury note, yielded 4.52% with a 99.81 price in afternoon trading Thursday, worsening from the 4.48% and 100.06 price reported at the market’s close prior to the Thanksgiving holiday. The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 5.76%, edging up 1 BPS from a week earlier, Freddie reported. Freddie said the average for 1-year Treasury-indexed ARMs ticked up 2 BPS to 5.16% this week. The 1-year T-bill weekly incline was steeper — up 9 BPS to 4.35% Tuesday, according to the Federal Reserve Statistical Release. Application activity eased about 2% during the holiday-shortened week, according to MBA’s latest Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Current application volume of 624.1, as measured by the Market Composite Index, is lower than 673.3 a year ago. Nonetheless, Freddie’s chief economist said that “Current low mortgage rates, coupled with the higher 2006 conforming loan limits of $417,000, should help to keep the mortgage industry bustling as we head into the new year.“ The weekly decrease in overall applications reflected a 6% drop in refinance requests and only a slight decline in purchase money applications, MBA said. While the refinance share of total 1003s reportedly nudged down from the prior week to 39%, the ARM share remained at 33%. |
Coco Salazar is an assistant editor and staff writer for MortgageDaily.com. e-mail: [email protected]
