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Mortgage Performance at Pre-Recession Levels

Q1 non-current rate down 3 BPS from prior period

May 12, 2016

By Mortgage Daily staff

Delinquency and foreclosures declined to levels not seen since before the Great Recession. Foreclosure starts haven't been this low since the turn of the century.

Residential loans that were at least 30 days past due or in the foreclosure inventory made up 6.51 percent of all U.S. mortgages outstanding as of March 31.

The non-current rate retreated from 6.54 percent as of the end of last year. It also improved compared to the same date last year, when it was 7.76 percent.

Those details and more were presented by the Mortgage Bankers Association in its National Delinquency Survey Q1 2016.

The past-due rate on just prime mortgages was 3.81 percent, improving 3 basis points from the final quarter of last year.

Subprime delinquency tumbled 36 BPS to 23.04 percent as of March 31, 2016.

Home loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration had a non-current rate of 10.91 percent, 71 BPS better than as of Dec. 31, 2015.

Mortgages guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs had a late-payment rate of 5.49 percent, worsening by 3 BPS compared to the prior report.

The latest overall U.S. non-current rate reflected a seasonally adjusted 4.77 percent 30-day delinquency rate excluding foreclosures -- the lowest rate since the third-quarter 2006 when it stood at 4.67 percent.

"The delinquency rate of 4.77 percent has returned to typical pre-recession levels and is lower than the historical average of 5.4 percent for the time period from 1979 to the first quarter of 2016," MBA Vice President of Industry Analysis Marina Walsh said in an accompanying announcement.

Thirty-day delinquency was no different than in the fourth-quarter 2015 but much improved from 5.54 percent in the first-quarter 2015.

The 30-day rate in Mississippi was the highest in the country: 8.05 percent. Louisiana was next with 6.53 percent, then Pennsylvania's 6.21 percent, Alabama's 6.20 percent and Georgia's 5.74 percent.

North Dakota had a rate of 1.96 percent -- the best in the nation.

Also reflected in the first-quarter 2016 U.S. non-current rate was a non-seasonally adjusted 1.74 percent foreclosure inventory rate. The rate hasn't been this low since the third-quarter 2007, when it was 1.69 percent.

"While the overall foreclosure inventory rate for the first quarter was considerably lower than the peak of 4.64 percent at the worst of the crisis, it was still above the average of 1.5 percent for the time period between 1979 and the first quarter of 2016," Walsh explained.

The foreclosure rate improved 3 basis points from three months earlier and was 48 BPS better than a year earlier.

In New Jersey, the foreclosure inventory rate was 6.16 percent -- the worst in the nation. New York's 4.62 percent rate was next, followed by 3.06 percent in the District of Columbia, 3.02 percent in Hawaii and 3.00 percent in Maine.

At just 0.53 percent, Colorado had the lowest foreclosure inventory rate.

MBA noted that the first-quarter 2016 U.S. foreclosure start rate was 0.35 percent -- better than at any time since the second-quarter 2000.

purchase National Delinquency Survey

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