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Escalation Reported for Mortgage Rates

Forecast calls for further ascension

July 12, 2018

By SAM GARCIA Mortgage Daily



portrait of Sam Garcia

The short-term report is that interest rates on residential loans turned higher this past week. The medium-term outlook is for more of the same.

For all of June, customers shopping rates at LendingTree for a loan to finance a home purchase were offered an average annual percentage rate of 5.00 percent.

But for prospective borrowers who had the highest credit scores -- at least 760 -- the average APR last month worked out to 4.86 percent.

Average interest rates on 30-year mortgages with fixed rates were 4.53 percent in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ended July 12.

Long-term mortgage rates worsened from the preceding seven-day period, when the average was 4.52 percent. Compared to the same week a year ago, the 30 year has risen 50 basis points.

A majority of panelists surveyed by Bankrate.com for the week July 11 to July 17 expected mortgage rates won't move more than 2 BPS over the next week. A third projected an increase, and just 8 percent predicted a drop.

Thirty-year fixed rates are predicted by the Mortgage Bankers Association to average 4.7 in the third quarter, 4.9 percent in the fourth quarter and 5.0 percent in the first-three months of next year.

In the U.S. Mortgage Market Index report from Mortgage Daily and OpenClose for the week ended July 6, interest rates on jumbo mortgages were 11 BPS higher than conforming rates. The spread was the same as a week earlier.

Freddie's survey had 15-year fixed rates averaging 4.02 percent, inching up 3 BPS from the week ended July 5. Based on Freddie's data, the spread between 15- and 30-year rates thinned to 51 BPS from 53 BPS.

At 3.86 percent, five-year, Treasury-indexed, hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages were 12 BPS higher than in Freddie's previous survey.

Department of the Treasury data indicate that the yield on the one-year Treasury note, which serves as an index for hybrid ARMs, closed Thursday at 2.39 percent, up from just 2.32 percent seven days earlier.

Another ARM index, the six-month London Interbank Offered Rate, was reported by Bankrate.com at 2.51 percent as of yesterday, the same as the previous Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that the Secured Overnight Financing Rate was 1.89 percent as of Wednesday, down from 2.00 percent seven days previous.

ARM share in the most-recent Mortgage Market Index report was 16.8 percent, more narrow than 18.2 percent the prior week.


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Sam Garcia founded Mortgage Daily in 1998 and became its full-time publisher in 2000. Before that, he worked in mortgage lending for two decades.

e-mail:
SamGarcia@MortgageDaily.com


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