Not only did the number of non-bank mortgage jobs expand on a monthly basis, but a weak overall jobs report has bond yields — and potential home loan rates — lower today.
Headcount among all U.S. nonfarm industries concluded March at 148,230,000 people, according to data reported Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
That was an increase of 103,000 jobs compared to the preceding month — an anemic showing compared to the upwardly revised 326,000 jobs added in February.
But job growth was still stronger than in March 2017, when just a downwardly revised 73,000 jobs were added.
The BLS, a division of the Department of Labor, reported that the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent last month, unchanged since October 2017.
The labor force participation rate slipped to 62.9 percent from 63.0 percent a month earlier
and a year earlier.
Curt Long, chief economist for the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions, viewed the data as weak.
“This was a disappointing employment report, with job gains falling below expectations, downward revisions to prior months, and a contraction to the labor force,” Long said in a written statement. “While this may give the Fed pause as it considers future rate increases, those decisions will be driven primarily by inflation. Based on a broad range of measures, the labor market remains a tight one.”
Robert Eyler, an economist at Sonoma State University, said in a written statement from the California Credit Union League that today’s report suggests that the recent Tax Cuts and Jobs Act wasn’t enough to stimulate the job market.
“We will soon see whether or not the recent congressional tax bill has led to immediate business investment and higher wage offerings, and if these jolts did enough to attract entrants into the labor market who were sitting on the sidelines,” Eyler said.
The chief economist for the California Credit Union League, Dwight Johnston, said the impact from today’s jobs report won’t be lasting as the impact from a potential trade war following tariffs recently imposed by President Donald J. Trump becomes clear.
So far, markets appear somewhat concerned about the weak report — with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
falling 4 basis points from yesterday’s close.
But the jobs numbers for just the mortgage industry, which the BLS reports on a one-month lag,
were much better.
According to the report, non-bank mortgage jobs totaled 339,800 as of February, expanding from an upwardly revised 337,300 the previous month and a downwardly revised 330,000 during the same month in 2017.
If, however, February’s mortgage expansion was tracking the previously reported overall jobs report for the same month — when non-farm employment expanded by a robust 326,000 — then March’s mortgage employment numbers are likely be weaker.
Most recently, mortgage jobs were comprised of 245,800 “real estate credit” employees and 94,000 “mortgage and non-mortgage loan brokers.”
By extrapolating the BLS data using origination market share, Mortgage Daily estimates that total staffing in real estate finance — including mortgage jobs at financial institutions — was 666,000 as of February.
The estimated home lending total consisted of 264,200 residential lending employees at banks, 62,000 mortgage jobs at credit unions and the 339,800 non-bank positions reported by the BLS.
