The second-quarter forecast for refinance originations has been raised — though the gain came at the expense of expected second-half production.
Overall U.S. single-family originations, including refinances and loans to finance a home purchase, are predicted to total $473 billion in the second quarter.
National mortgage production is then projected to fall to $436 billion during the following three-month period then retreat further — to $396 billion — in the fourth quarter.
Fannie Mae made the predictions in its Housing Forecast: April 2018.
Purchase-money lending is expected to soar from $219 billion this quarter to $340 billion three months later.
But refinance originations are predicted to tumble from $132 billion to just $100 billion in the third quarter and $99 billion three months later. While Fannie raised the second-quarter forecast from $125 billion in its outlook from March, it cut the forecast for the entire second half by $7 billion.
Full-year overall originations are predicted to dip from $1.690 trillion in 2018 to $1.686 trillion next year.
Fannie has purchase-money lending climbing from $1.192 trillion this year to $1.248 trillion in 2019.
But refinance business is expected to fall from $0.498 trillion during the current year to $0.438 trillion the following year.
Refinance share is projected to thin from 29 percent in 2018 to 26 percent next year.
