The estimate of single-family loan originations for the first-three months of this year has been boosted by 15 percent only to be offset by a lower outlook for the remainig three quarters this year.
From Jan. 1, 2018, through March 31, mortgage originators closed an estimated $373 billion in new U.S. residential loans. The total refects both refinances and loans to finance home purchases.
National production is expected to jump to $441 billion this quarter and ascend to $478 billion in the third quarter before descending to $428 billion in the final-three months of this year.
Those predictions were made by
Freddie Mac in its April 2018 Economic & Housing Market Forecast.
The secondary mortgage lender
increased its first-quarter forecast from $325 billion expected in last month’s outlook report. But the projections were lowered from $460 billion for the second quarter, $495 billion for the following three months and $440 billion for the fourth quarter.
Based on refinance share reported by Freddie, refinance originations should work out to $106 billion this quarter and $110 billion in the third quarter. Last month, refinances were expected to climb from $110 billion to $114 billion.
The purchase-money forecast was reduced to $335 billion for the second quarter from $350 billion, and the following period’s projection fell to $368 billion from $381 billion.
During all 12 months of this year, Freddie predicts originations will amount to $1.72 trillion then rise to $1.76 trillion in 2019.
Refinances are expectd to drift down from $0.447 trillion in 2018 to $0.405 trillion next year. Refinance share is projected to thin from 25 percent to 23 percent.
Purchase-money lending is predicted to grow from $1.273 trillion this year to $1.355 trillion in 2019.
Based on Freddie’s forecasted FHA and VA originations, government share is predicted to widen from 20.5 percent during the current year to 23.0 percent in 2019.
