The forecast for refinance production during the current quarter has been raised by the nation’s mortgage bankers, though the rise was offset by a drop in expected purchase-money lending.
Overall second-quarter residential loan originations are expected to reach $445 billion. The total includes refinances and loans to finance a home purchase.
National mortgage production by all U.S. lenders is then expected to creep up to $450 billion the following three-month period before falling to $370 billion in the final quarter of this year.
Making the predictions were the Mortgage Bankers Association in
its MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast.
MBA has purchase financing volume increasing from $330 billion this quarter to $350 billion in the third quarter. The second-quarter forecast was trimmed from $334 billion in last month’s outlook.
Refinances are expected to drop from $115 billion during the current three-month period to $100 billion in the third quarter. MBA raised its second-quarter refinance outlook from $110 billion.
For all of 2018, the Washington-based trade group projects overall originations of $1.611 trillion. Business is then expected to rise to $1.645 trillion next year and
$1.712 trillion in 2020.
Purchase business is expected to account for $1.168 trillion of this year’s closings, $1.250 trillion of the 2019 total and $1.317 trillion of the following year’s total. The 2018 total was trimmed from $1.172 trillion expected a month ago.
Refinances are expected to
represent $0.443 trillion of the 2018 total, while next year’s and 2020’s refinances are expected to total $0.395 trillion.
MBA expects refinance share to thin from 27 percent this year to 24 percent in 2019 and 23 percent a year later.
Mortgages outstanding are expected to grow from $10.37 trillion in 2018 to $10.76 trillion in 2019 and $11.13 trillion the following year.
