Despite industry-wide expectations of ongoing declines in refinance production, U.S. mortgage bankers see continued expansion ahead for the origination of loans to finance home purchases.
From April 1 through June 30 of this year, single-family loan originations — including refinances and purchases — are expected to come to $447 billion.
Mortgage production is then expected to inch up to $450 billion in the third quarter before tumbling to $370 billion during the final-three months of this year.
Those predictions were made by
the Mortgage Bankers Association in
its MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast.
MBA has purchase financing climbing from $329 billion in the second quarter to $350 billion three months later then retreating to $270 billion in the fourth quarter.
Refinances, meanwhile, are expected to fall from $118 billion in the current quarter to $100 billion in both the third and fourth quarters.
Full-year overall originations
are expected to increase form $1.613 trillion in 2018 to $1.645 trillion next year and $1.712 trillion in 2020.
Purchase-money lending is forecasted to grow from $1.167 trillion to $1.250 trillion in 2019 and $1.317 trillion one year later.
The outlook is for refinances to fall from $446 billion this year to $395 billion both in 2019 and the following year. Refinance share is projected to thin from 28 percent in 2019 to 24 percent next year and 23 percent in 2020.
The Washington-based trade group has mortgage debt outstanding expanding from $10.370 trillion in 2018 to $10.760 trillion a year later and $11.130 trillion in 2020.