The latest housing forecast from the Federal National Mortgage Association reflects a $28 billion reduction in projections for purchase financing this year and next year.
For just the third quarter of this year, Fannie Mae predicts $446 billion in purchase and refinance single-family originations by all U.S. lenders.
In the final-three months of the year, volume is expected to fall to $398 billion and retreat more — to $340 billion — in the first-quarter 2019.
Fannie trimmed its fourth-quarter outlook from $402 billion expected in last month’s housing forecast, while the first-quarter 2019 projection was reduced from $346 billion.
The current-quarter outlook for loans to finance a home purchase was shaved to $342 billion from $344 billion, and the final quarter’s projection was mostly unchanged at $301 billion.
Fannie expects refinance production to dip from $104 billion in the third quarter to $97 billion three months later.
Full-year overall originations are predicted to increase from $1.689 trillion in 2018 to $1.701 trillion next year. In the preceding forecast, lending was expected to grow from $1.709 trillion this year to $1.708 trillion in 2019.
The 2018 purchase-money projection was lowered to $1.208 trillion from $1.228 trillion in the last forecast. Next year’s outlook was reduced to $1.263 trillion from $1.271 trillion.
Refinances are predicted to fall from $0.481 trillion this year to $0.438 trillion in 2020. Refinance share is expected to thin from 28 percent to 26 percent.
