The latest mortgage origination forecast has next year’s production of loans to finance a home purchase coming in nearly $10 billion less than was expected just last month.
Single-family lending, including refinancing and purchasd financing, is predicted to reach $443 billion during the third quarter then fall to $404 billion in the final-three months of this year.
Expected business from all U.S. residential lenders is projected to reach a trough in the first quarter of next year, when mortgage originations are anticipated to be $338 billion.
Those expectations were outlined by
Fannie Mae in its Housing Forecast: September 2018.
Purchase-money production is expected to account for $339 billion of current-period activity then fall to $299 billion in the fourth quarter.
Refinance originations are predicted to inch up from $104 billion in the third-quarter 2018 to $105 billion three months later.
Washington-based Fannie expects total originations to creep up from $1.670 trillion during 2018 to $1.686 trillion next year. Last month’s forecast had the 2019 forecast at $1.695 trillion.
Purchase production is projected to rise from $1.200 trillion during the current year to $1.248 trillion next year. Fannie lowered the 2019 outlook from $1.257 trillion.
Refinance originations are expected to decline from $0.470 trillion to $0.438 trillion. The forecast has refinance share thinning from 28 percent this year to 26 percent in 2019.
