Even though purchase-money production is expected to increase by nearly $50 billion between this year and next year, refinances are expected to decline by more than $60 billion.
When the current quarter ends, a total of $443 billion in loans that are secured by one-to-four family properties are forecasted to have been closed.
Mortgage originations are expected to sink to $370 billion in the fourth quarter then deescalate further, to $328 billion, during the first-three months of next year.
Those predictions were made by the Mortgage Bankers Association in its
MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast.
The origination of loans to finance the purchase of a house are expected to fall from $332 billion in the third quarter to $270 billion three months later. Refinance production is projected to fall from $111 billion to $100 billion in the fourth quarter.
During all 12 months of this year, overall mortgage originations are predicted to reach $1.606 trillion. Production is forecasted to fall to $1.592 trillion in 2019 then bounce up to $1.631 trillion the following year.
MBA has purchase financing increasing from $1.149 trillion in 2018 to $1.197 trillion next year and $1.236 trillion in 2020.
Refinances are expected to drop from $457 billion during the current year to $395 billion in 2019 and one year later.
Refinance share is forecasted to thin from 28 percent to a quarter in 2019 and 24 percent a year later.
MBA’s outlook has mortgage debt outstanding expanding from $10.370 trillion at the end of this year to $10.760 trillion as of Dec. 31, 2019, and $11.130 trillion during the following 12 months.
