The latest housing forecast from
Fannie Mae has this year’s mortgage originations coming in $35 billion less than previously expected, while next year’s outlook was cut by $61 billion.
Economists at
the secondary mortgage lender expect home lending by all U.S residential
originators to amount to $386 billion during the final three months of this year.
In the first quarter of next year, originations are predicted to sink to $323 billion. But mortgage production is then expected to jump to $444 billion in the second-quarter 2019.
The predictions were made by the Washington-based organization in
its Housing Forecast: October 2018.
In last month’s outlook from Fannie, originations were expected to fall from $404 billion in the fourth quarter to $338 billion then rise to $460 billion in the second-quarter 2019.
Fannie cut its
current-quarter purchase financing forecast to $290 billion from $299 billion, and the following period’s outlook was reduced to $223 billion from $229 billion.
Refinances are now expected to total $96 billion in the fourth quarter versus $105 billion previously expected. The following three months’ forecast was lowered to $101 billion from $110 billion.
For all four quarters of 2018, Fannie predicts production will amount to $1.635 trillion, less than $1.670 trillion previously expected. Next years projection fell to $1.625 trillion from $1.686 trillion.
This year’s purchase-money outlook declined to $1.181 trillion from $1.200 trillion predicted in September. The 2019 purchase forecast fell to $1.224 trillion from $1.248 trillion.
Finally, Fannie reduced the 2018 refinance forecast to $0.454 trillion from $0.470 trillion, and the following year’s outlook declined to $0.401 trillion from $0.438 trillion.
Refinance share is expected to thin from 28 percent this year to a quarter in 2019.
