Last year’s estimated refinance production has been raised, while the purchase-money estimate was lowered. Forecasts for both categories were lifted for this year and next year.
Single-family loan originations by all lenders, including refinances and purchases, during the first-three months of 2018 are expected to come in at $335 billion.
Home lending is then expected to jump to $495 billion in the second quarter then ascend further — to $500 billion — during the following three months.
Freddie Mac, which made the predictions in its January 2018 Economic & Housing Market Forecast, didn’t publish a forecast in December.
Freddie increased its projections for the first quarter from $330 billion in its November outlook. The following quarter’s forecast rose from $490 billion, and the third-quarter prediction increased from $495 billion.
Based on Freddie’s projected refinance share, refinance originations during the current quarter are expected to reach $101 billion then rise to $124 billion in the second quarter.
Loans to finance home purchases are expected to total $235 billion in the first quarter, a little more than $231 billion previously projected. Purchase-money lending is then expected to rise to $371 billion three months later, an increase from $368 billion predicted in November.
Freddie raised its estimate of overall 2017 production to $1.82 trillion from $1.80 trillion in the last report. This year’s outlook increased to $1.74 trillion from $1.72 trillion, while 2018’s grew to $1.78 trillion from $1.77 trillion.
The estimate of last year’s refinances
expanded to $0.655 trillion from $0.612 trillion. The 2018 refinance outlook was lifted to $0.435 trillion from $0.430 trillion, and next year’s grew to $0.409 trillion from $0.407 trillion.
Freddie has refinance share thinning from 36 percent in 2017 to a quarter this year and 23 percent in 2019.
Purchase financing is estimated at $1.165 trillion for 2017, less than $1.188 trillion previously expected. The 2018 purchase forecast, however, increased to $1.305 trillion from $1.290 trillion, and next year’s outlook expanded to $1.371 trillion from $1.363 trillion.
Government share of originations is expected to slip from 23.6 percent in 2017 to 23.1 percent this year and 22.9 percent in 2019.
