Economists at Fannie Mae have elevated their estimate of refinance production last year at the nation’s primary mortgage originators. Even the purchase estimate was nudged higher.
During just first quarter of this year, the secondary lender predicts that overall loan originations, including purchases and refinances, will total $366 billion.
Aggregate national production is then expected to jump to $483 billion during the following three months before retreating to $466 billion in the third quarter.
The predictions were made in Fannie’s
Housing Forecast: January 2018.
Loans to finance home purchases are expected to account for $218 billion of the current quarter’s volume then soar to $342 billion in the second quarter.
Refinances are expected to fall from $148 billion in the first-three months of this year to $142 billion.
Full-year 2017 overall originations are estimated at $1.830 trillion, more than $1.812 trillion estimated in Fannie’s December outlook. Aggregate national production is projected to decline to $1.731 trillion this year and $1.690 trillion in 2019.
The 2017 estimate of purchase-money lending inched up to $1.143 trillion from $1.140 trillion previously predicted. This year’s purchase financing forecast is $1.195 trillion, and 2019’s outlook calls for $1.242 trillion in purchase lending.
Fannie also raised last year’s estimate of refinance volume, to $0.687 trillion from $0.672 trillion expected last month. Fannie has refinances falling to $0.536 trillion in 2018 and $0.448 trillion the following year.
Refinance share is expected to thin from 38 percent in 2017 to 31 percent this year and 27 percent in 2019.
