The volume of refinances expected by the country’s mortgage bankers during the first-three months of this year has increased.
Total mortgage originations, including purchase financing and refinancing, is projected to reach $352 billion during the first quarter.
U.S. production is then expected to jump to $430 billion three months later and $437 billion during the third quarter of this year.
The Mortgage Bankers Association, which made the predictions in its
MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast, lifted its first-quarter outlook from $344 billion expected a month earlier.
Loans to finance a home purchase are expected to account for $212 billion of the current-quarter total then surge to $310 billion in the second quarter.
Refinances are projected to drop from $140 billion in the first-quarter to $120 billion. MBA increased this quarter’s refinance outlook from $132 billion predicted in January.
The trade group has full-year mortgage originations inching up from $1.571 trillion in 2017 to $1.588 trillion next year and $1.640 trillion in 2019. The current-year forecast edged up from $1.563 trillion in the last forecast.
Purchase-money lending is projected to go from $1.092 trillion to $1.178 trillion in 2018 and $1.245 trillion the following year.
Refinance production is expected to fall, though, from $0.479 trillion in 2017 to $0.410 trillion a year later and $0.395 trillion in 2019. This year’s forecast increased from $0.471 trillion in last month’s outlook.
Refinance share is predicted to thin from 30 percent in the current annual period to 26 percent a year later and 24 percent in 2019.
MBA’s forecast has mortgage debt outstanding growing from $9.696 trillion in 2016 to $10.091 trillion this year, $10.500 trillion in 2018 and $10.877 trillion a year later.
