Fannie Mae has lifted its expectations for this year’s refinance originations and additionally increased its estimate of last year’s purchase production.
In its housing forecast for March, the government-controlled enterprise
has first-quarter home lending activity by all U.S. originators at $339 billion.
Residential loan volume is then expected to climb to $438 billion
during the following three months before retreating to $413 billion in the third quarter.
Expected originations were increased from last month’s outlook,
when Fannie predicted production would go from $323 billion to $411 billion in the second quarter then fall to $404 billion.
The first-quarter purchase forecast was trimmed to $171 billion from $174 billion last month, while the following period’s projection for purchase production was unchanged at $266 billion.
But the current period’s refinance outlook climbed to $167 billion from $149 billion, and the second-quarter forecast rose to $172 billion from $145 billion.
Fannie increased its full-year 2015 origination estimate to $1.710 trillion from $1.690 trillion last month.
This year’s overall outlook expanded to $1.560 trillion from $1.508 trillion, and the 2017 projection inched up to $1.439 trillion from $1.438 trillion.
Last year’s improved estimate reflected an increase in estimated purchase financing, which was lifted to $0.915 trillion from $0.896 trillion.
The 2016 purchase outlook inched up $0.001 trillion to $0.951 trillion, and next year’s purchase outlook was also up $0.001 trillion to $0.999 trillion.
The current
year’s refinance forecast was beefed up to $0.609 trillion from $0.558 trillion expected in the prior month’s forecast.
In 2017, Fannie expects refinances to reach $0.440 trillion, no different than it expected in February.
Refinance share is projected to fall from 46 percent last year to 39 percent in 2016 and 31 percent next year.
