Refinance production during the final-three months of last year and the first-three months of this year is stronger than previously thought. The improvement carried up overall originations.
Home-lending during the first quarter of 2018 is expected to amount to $384 billion, plunging from $465 billion in the final quarter of last year..
Business, which includes refinances and loans to finance a home purchase,
is forecasted to jump to $466 billion in the second quarter before dipping to $440 billion three months later.
The predictions were made by Fannie Mae in its Housing Forecast: March 2018.
Fannie’s fourth-quarter estimate was raised from $455 billion in last month’s forecast. The first-quarter 2018 forecast increased from $369 billion, and the third-quarter outlook was trimmed from $447 billion.
The secondary lender’s economists expect purchase financing to jump from $217 billion this quarter to $340 billion in the second quarter.
Estimated fourth-quarter refinances were lifted to $187 billion from $178 billion in last month’s outlook. First-quarter 2018 expected refinances rose to $167 billion from $151 billion, and the following period’s projection was little changed at $125 billion.
Fannie’s economists have full-year production by all single-family lenders retreating from $1.842 trillion last year to $1.689 trillion in 2018 and $1.688 trillion one year later. The 2017 estimate increased from $1.831 trillion in February’s forecast, while next year’s outlook improved from $1.677 trillion.
Full-year purchase volume is expected to grow from $1.134 trillion last year to $1.191 trillion in 2018 and $1.250 trillion the following year. The 2019 outlook escalated from $1.239 trillion expected last month.
Refinances are expected to plummet from $0.708 trillion last year to $0.498 trillion
in 2018 and $438 billion in 2019. The 2017 estimate was raised form $0.698 billion in the forecast from a month earlier.
Fannie has refinance share at 29 percent this year and 26 percent in 2019.
