The outlook for purchase financing has been trimmed for this year and next year. But this year’s expected refinance production has been raised.
During the second quarter of this year, total mortgage originations — including purchase-money and refinances — is expected to reach $444 billion.
Business is then expected to fall to $413 billion during the following three-month period and drop to $367 billion
during the final quarter of this year.
Those predictions were made by Fannie Mae in its Housing Forecast: April 2016.
Fannie lifted its second-quarter projection from $438 billion expected last month, while the fourth-quarter forecast was trimmed from $370 billion.
The secondary lender has purchase-money production falling from $266 billion this quarter to $271 billion in the third quarter — no different than last month.
But the second-quarter refinance outlook increased to $178 billion from $172 billion, while the following period’s projection was left at $142 billion.
Full-year overall originations
are expected to go from $1.711 trillion last year to $1.555 trillion in 2016 and $1.434 trillion in 2017.
Last month’s outlook had originations going from $1.710 trillion in 2015 to $1.560 trillion this year and $1.439 trillion next year.
The estimate for last year’s purchase financing inched up to $0.916 trillion from $0.915 trillion. But
the 2016 purchase outlook was cut to $0.940 trillion from $0.951 trillion, while next year’s forecast fell to $0.994 trillion from $0.999 trillion.
Fannie raised this year’s refinance outlook to $0.615 trillion from $0.609 trillion. There was no change to next year’s refinance forecast of $0.440 trillion.
Refinance share is expected to fall from 40 percent in 2016 to 31 percent next year.
