Home lending economists have improved their expectations for this year refinances. But the boost came at the expense of expected purchase financing.
During the second quarter, residential loan originations, including refinancings and purchase-money lending, are predicted to total $459 billion.
U.S. mortgage production is then expected to decline to $424 billion three months later and $348 billion during the final-three months of the year.
The Mortgage Bankers Association, which made the predictions in its
MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast, raised the current-quarter outlook from $450 billion expected in last month’s forecast, lowered the third-quarter projection from $437 billion, and cut the following period’s prediction from $352 billion.
MBA trimmed its expectations for second-quarter purchase financing to $316 billion from $322 billion, while the third-quarter
outlook was reduced o $312 billion from $325 billion.
The trade group, though, lifted this quarter’s refinance forecast to $143 billion from $128 billion, while the following quarter’s outlook was left at $112 billion.
From Jan 1, 2017, through Dec. 31, MBA predicts overall originations will total $1.592 trillion, less than the $1.600 trillion expected in last month’s forecast. But the association still expects $1.588 trillion to be closed next year and $1.640 trillion to be funded in 2019.
The 2017 purchase forecast has been reduced to $1.081 trillion from $1.104 trillion, while lending is still expected to go from $1.178 trillion in 2018 to $1.245 trillion a year later.
Conversely, this year’s refinance forecast increased to $0.511 trillion from $0.496 trillion, while $0.410 trillion in 2018 and $0.395 trillion in 2019 is still expected.
Refinance share is predicted to thin from 32 percent in 2017 to 26 percent the following year and 24 percent in 2019.
MBA has mortgage debt outstanding growing from $10.091 trillion this year to $10.500 trillion in 2018 and $10.877 trillion a year later.
