Mortgage bankers are apparently more optimistic about refinance production for the current quarter, lifting their projection by $11 billion.
Total home loan originations from all U.S. lenders, including refinancing and purchase financing, are expected to amount to $363 billion during the second quarter.
Business is then expected to tumble to $318 billion in the third quarter and fall further still to $272 billion during the final three months of this year.
The Mortgage Bankers Association made the predictions in its MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast.
MBA raised its second-quarter projection from $353 billion expected in last month’s outlook, while there was no change to its second-half outlook.
Purchase production is projected to account for $207 billion of second-quarter activity, down from $208 billion expected last month. There was no change to the $210 billion third-quarter outlook for purchase financing.
MBA increased its forecast for the current quarter’s refinances to $156 billion from $145 billion, while third-quarter refinance originations are still expected to be $108 billion.
For all 12 months of this year, total originations are expected to reach $1.241 trillion, more than the $1.231 trillion expected in March. The 2016 forecast was no different than last month at $1.170 trillion.
MBA trimmed its 2015 purchase forecast to $0.729 trillion from $0.730 trillion and left next year’s purchase outlook at $0.791 trillion.
The full-year 2015 refinance forecast grew to $0.512 trillion from $0.501 trillion, while the $0.379 trillion purchase forecast for 2016 was unchanged.
The trade group has refinance share at 41 percent for this year and 32 percent for next year.
