After peaking during the current quarterly period, single-family loan production is projected to retreat for the foreseeable future.
During the three months ended June 30, 2017, U.S. residential loan originations are expected total $512 billion, the biggest quarter of the year.
New mortgage volume is then expected to decline to $469 billion in the third quarter and $377 billion in the final-three months of the year.
That is according to Freddie Mac’s June 2017 Economic & Housing Market Forecast.
Based on refinance share reported by the McLean, Virginia-based secondary mortgage lender, Mortgage Daily estimates that refinance originations are expected go from $159 billion in the second-quarter 2017 to $141 billion three months later. The fourth-quarter refinance projection is just $106 billion.
Estimated purchase financing is expected to descend from $353 billion to $328 billion in the third quarter and settle at $271 billion in the last quarter of this year.
From Jan. 1, 2017, through Dec. 31, 2017, Freddie has total mortgage originations at $1.755 trillion. The following year, production is projected to drop to $1.600 trillion.
Refinance transaction totals are expected to fall from $0.579 trillion this year to $0.400 trillion in 2018.
Purchase financing is predicted to climb from $1.176 trillion to $1.200 trillion next year.
The refinance and purchase estimates were based on Freddie’s reported refinance share, which is expected to be one-third this year and one-quarter next year.
Based on Freddie’s expected volume of loans insured by
the Federal Housing Administration or guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs, government share is expected to be 21.4 percent this year and 20.4 percent next year.
