The latest real estate finance forecast has mortgage refinance production for this year and next year up by more than $40 billion from what was expected a month ago.
From July 1, 2017, through Sept. 30, residential loan originations, including refinances and loans to finance home purchase, are expected to reach $453 billion.
Activity is then forecasted to fall to $366 billion during the final-three months of this year and $312 billion in the first-three months of next year.
Those predictions were made in Fannie Mae’s Housing Forecast: August 2017.
The secondary lender raised its third-quarter outlook from $440 billion in last month’s forecast, while the fourth-quarter projection was lifted from $362 billion, and the first-quarter 2018
outlook improved from $306 billion.
Purchase-money financing is expected to total $307 billion in the current quarter and $263 billion in the final-three months of the year.
Refinances are projected to reach $146 billion in the third quarter, up from $133 billion predicted a month ago. The fourth-quarter outlook increased to $103 billion from $100 billion.
Full-year 2017 overall originations are expected to be $1.666 trillion, more than $1.649 trillion projected in July. Next year’s forecast was increased to $1.569 billion from $1.541 billion.
Fannie trimmed this year’s purchase forecast to $1.080 trillion from $1.083 trillion previously expected, though the 2018 purchase outlook was moved up $0.004 trillion from a month earlier to $1.164 trillion.
The refinance forecast was increased to $0.586 trillion from $0.566 trillion predicted last month. Next year’s outlook increased to $0.405 trillion from $0.381 trillion.
The 2017 refinance share is expected to be 35 percent, while next year’s share is predicted at 26 percent.
