After peaking in the second quarter, the nation’s mortgage bankers predict that loan originations will decline each of the following three quarters.
Industry-wide mortgage production is expected to fall from $463 billion in the second quarter to $455 billion in the current three-month period.
Home lending is then projected to continue dropping, to $348 billion in the final quarter of this year and $345 billion in the first-three months of next year.
Those predictions were made by the Mortgage Bankers Association in its
MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast. No changes were made from last month’s outlook from the trade group.
Home purchase financing is projected to retreat from $320 billion in the third quarter to $241 billion three months later.
MBA
expects refinances to decline from $135 billion this quarter to $107 billion in the fourth quarter.
Full-year overall production is expected to go from $1.627 trillion in 2017 to $1.588 trillion next year and $1.640 trillion in 2019.
Purchase-money originations are forecasted to account for $1.089 trillion of this year’s volume, $1.178 trillion in 2018 and $1.245 trillion a year later.
Refinances, meanwhile, are expected to fall from $0.538 billion in 2017 to $0.410 trillion in the following 12-month period and $0.395 trillion in 2019.
The association has refinance share at a third this year, 26 percent in 2018 and 24 percent a year later.
MBA expects outstanding mortgages to grow from $10.050 trillion in 2017 to $10.450 trillion next year and $10.850 trillion the following year.
