In the latest forecast from Fannie Mae, the company’s economists scaled back their expectations for home lending this year while nudging up next year’s outlook.
Third-quarter loan originations at all U.S. mortgage bankers are projected by the secondary lender to come in at $351 billion.
Business is then forecasted to fall to $296 billion the following quarter and $248 billion during the first three months of next year.
Fannie trimmed the the current-quarter outlook from $353 billion in its forecast from July, while the fourth-quarter projection was cut from $320 billion and the first-quarter 2014
outlook was reduced from $256 billion.
The details were outlined in the
Washington-based firm’s Housing Forecast: August 2015.
Purchase financing is expected to decline from $218 billion in the third quarter to $192 billion three months later. Fannie raised its outlook for the current quarter from $215 billion last month.
Fannie lowered its third-quarter refinance forecast to $134 billion from $138 billion, and the fourth-quarter forecast fell to $105 billion from $128 billion.
For all of 2015, the government-controlled enterprise has residential loan production totaling $1.423 trillion, down from the $1.464 trillion predicted last month.
But next year’s outlook was expanded to $1.190 trillion from $1.171 trillion in the July forecast.
The portion of this year’s originations that will be used to finance home purchases is $0.760 trillion, less than the $0.775 trillion expected last month.
But the 2016 purchase outlook increased to $0.816 trillion from $0.810 trillion.
On the refinance side, production is expected t reach $0.663 trillion in 2015 versus the $0.689 trillion projected in the last report.
Next year’s refinance forecast, however, was lifted to $0.373 trillion from $0.362 trillion.
Fannie expects refinance share to
thin from 47 percent this year to 31 percent in 2016.
