The most-recent outlook for purchase financing has been lifted both for this year and next year. Even this year’s refinance forecast improved.
Total home lending activity during the three months ending Sept. 30, including purchase production and refinances, is expected to be $371 billion.
Business is then projected
to decline to $323 billion in the next three months and $250 billion in the first-quarter 2016.
The predictions were made in the
Housing Forecast: September 2015 from the Federal National Mortgage Association.
Fannie Mae cut its outlook from last month, when its economists projected business would fall from $351 billion in the current quarter to $296 billion in the fourth quarter and $248 billion in the first three months of next year.
The third-quarter purchase forecast was increased to $229 billion from $218 billion in the last outlook, while the following quarter’s expected activity fattened to $212 billion from $192 billion.
Fannie bolstered its current-quarter refinance outlook to $142 billion from $134 billion, while the fourth-quarter forecast was lifted to $112 billion from $105 billion.
Full-year overall originations are expected to fall from $1.477 trillion this year to $1.219 trillion in 2016. The annual amounts were up from $1.423 trillion for 2015 and $1.190 trillion next year.
Purchase
production is predicted to reach $0.798 trillion in the current year and $0.845 trillion during 2016, more than the $0.760 trillion previously expected for 2015 and $0.816 trillion for the following year.
Fannie said refinance originations are expected to be $0.679 trillion in 2015 and $0.373 trillion in 2016. This year’s refinance forecast improved from $0.663 trillion in the last report.
Fannie expects refinance share to drop from 46 percent this year
to 31 percent the following year.
