Mortgage bankers’ forecasted mortgage originations have moved by up by more than $250 billion for the three years ended 2016, but the rise was far less than in another economic outlook.
Third-quarter residential loan production is estimated to have come in at $381 billion. Volume is then expected to fall to $345 billion in the following three months and $293 billion in the first three months of next year.
The projection was raised from last month, when mortgage production was expected to fall from $363 billion to $303 billion in the fourth quarter and $273 billion in the first-quarter 2016.
The predictions were made in the MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast released Monday from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Purchase financing is projected by the trade group to decline from $200 billion in the current quarter to $175 billion in the first-quarter 2016. That is less than the
$185 billion previously expected for the fourth quarter and $175 billion projected for the following three-month period.
MBA raised its expectations for fourth-quarter 2015 refinance originations to
$145 billion from the $118 billion previously projected, while the first-quarter 2016 refinance outlook increased to $118 billion from $98 billion.
For the entire year of 2014, total expected production was raised to $1.261 trillion from the previously projected amount of $1.122 trillion. This year’s forecast increased to $1.451 trillion from $1.391 trillion, while the 2016 outlook grew to $1.320 trillion from $1.264 trillion.
The increase was nowhere near as big
as at Fannie Mae, which lifted its combined 2014-2015-2016 expectations by a collective $500 billion.
In the latest report, MBA has 2017 volume at $1.309 trillion and 2018 production at $1.297 trillion.
The 2014 purchase financing estimate rose to $0.759 trillion from $0.638 trillion. This year’s purchase projection expanded to $0.821 trillion from $0.801 trillion, and next year’s purchase financing is now expected to be $0.905 trillion compared to $0.885 trillion in last month’s forecast.
MBA has 2017 purchase production at $0.978 trillion, while 2018 is pegged at $1.022 trillion.
On refinances, the 2014 outlook increased to $0.502 trillion from $0.484 trillion, the 2015 projection grew to $0.630 trillion from $0.590 trillion, and next year’s expectations expanded to $0.415 trillion from $0.379 trillion.
MBA has 2017 refinances at $0.331 trillion and 2018 volume at $0.275 trillion.
Refinance share is projected to go from 40 percent in 2014 to 43 percent this year, 31 percent next year, 25 percent in 2017 and 21 percent in 2018.
