Just a month after increasing the volume of expected refinance transactions for this year, mortgage bankers are at it again.
Fourth-quarter residential lending activity, including refinances and purchase financing, is expected to reach $360 billion.
Business is then expected to fall to $293 billion in the first-quarter 2016 then bounce back up to $360 billion three months later.
The Mortgage Bankers Association, which made the prediction in its November
Mortgage Finance Forecast, lifted its fourth-quarter exceptions from $345 billion projected last month.
The current quarter’s refinance forecast increased to $160 billion from $145 billion in the last outlook. First-quarter 2016 refinance volume is still expected to be $118 billion.
MBA has purchase financing falling from $200 billion this quarter to $175 billion in the first-three months of next year, no different than in the last forecast.
The outlook for full-year 2015 mortgage originations increased to $1.466 trillion from $1.451 trillion. There was no change to the $1.320 trillion in volume expected next year, $1.309 trillion projected for 2017 and $1.297 trillion forecasted for 2018.
This year’ refinance outlook grew to $0.645 trillion from $0.630 trillion. The increase followed last month’s $0.040 trillion boost.
But the trade group left 2016, 2017 and 2018 forecasts respectively at $0.415 trillion, $0.331 trillion and $0.275 trillion.
Refinance share is predicted to drop from 44 percent to 31 percent in 2016, a quarter in 2017 and 21 percent in 2018.
MBA predicted that purchase financing will rise from $0.821 trillion in 2015 to $0.905 trillion next year then climb to $0.978 trillion in 2017 and $1.022 trillion in 2018.
