Mortgage bankers have pushed up their projection for refinance originations during the first three months of next year.
Including refinancing and purchase financing, residential loan originations are expected to fall from $278 billion in the fourth-quarter 2014 to $271 billion three months later then jump to $328 billion in the second-quarter 2015.
That was pretty much the same forecast as last month except that the first-quarter 2015 outlook improved from $266 billion previously projected.
The latest predictions were made by the Mortgage Bankers Association in the
MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast for December.
Purchase financing is expected to account for $150 billion of the current quarter’s volume, $144 billion of first-quarter 2015 activity and $204 billion of the following three-month period’s originations. There was no change from MBA’s prior projection.
The trade group left its fourth-quarter 2014 refinance outlook at $128 billion
but lifted the first-quarter 2015 refinance forecast to $127 billion from $122 billion. The second-quarter 2014 refinance outlook was unchanged at $124 billion.
Full-year 2014 mortgage originations are expected to be $1.122 trillion, the same as forecasted last month. But next year’s projection was increased to $1.189 trillion from $1.184 trillion. There was no change for the $1.170 trillion 2015 outlook.
MBA left its forecast for purchase production at $0.638 trillion for this year, $0.733 trillion for 2015 and $0.791 trillion for next year.
The 2014 refinance outlook was $0.484 trillion, the same as expected last month. But next year’s refinance forecast of $0.456 trillion was nudged up from $$0.451 trillion in the previous outlook. The 2016 refinance forecast was left at $0.379 trillion.
MBA has refinance share at 43 percent this year, 38 percent
in 2015 and 32 percent in 2016.
