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Average fixed and ARM rates. Rate forecasts. Quotes on ARM indexes including COFI, MTA, LIBOR & Treasuries. Rate reset studies and reports. Mortgage rate litigation.


Mortgage Rates Rise, Could Climb More

30-year fixed rates average 4.19%

Jan. 26, 2017

By SAM GARCIA Mortgage Daily



portrait of Sam Garcia

Fixed interest rates on residential loans turned sharply higher this past week. Short- and long-term forecasts have rates increasing even more.

Thirty-year fixed rates on home loans averaged 4.19 percent in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ended Jan. 26.

That was a 10-basis-point ascension compared to the previous week. In addition, long-term rates soared from 3.79 percent a year previous.

An analysis of Treasury market activity by Mortgage Daily suggests that fixed rates could be around 4 BPS worse in Freddie's next survey.

Half of the panelists surveyed by Bankrate.com for the week Jan. 26 to Feb. 1 agreed with Mortgage Daily and predicted that rates will rise at least 3 BPS over the next week. Another 42 percent expected no change, and just 8 percent projected a decline.

Looking further into the future, Fannie Mae predicted in its Housing Forecast January 2017 that 30-year fixed rates will average 4.2 percent during the first-three quarters of this year.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast has 30-year rates rising from 4.3 percent this quarter to 4.4 percent in the second quarter and 4.6 percent three months later.

In the week ended Jan. 20, the U.S Mortgage Market Index report from OpenClose and Mortgage Daily had interest rates on jumbo mortgages 7 BPS less than conforming rates. The jumbo-conforming spread thinned from a negative 9 BPS the previous week.

At 3.40 percent in Freddie's survey, 15-year fixed rates were 6 BPS worse than in the week ended Jan. 19. Fifteen-year rates were 79 BPS less than 30-year rates. The spread widened from 75 BPS in the last report.

Five-year, Treasury-indexed, hybrid, adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 3.20 percent in Freddie's latest survey, a basis point less than the prior week.

Fannie predicts that hybrid ARMs will average 3.3 percent in the first-half 2017 and 3.4 percent in the third quarter.

Rates on hybrid ARMs adjust based on the yield on the one-year Treasury note, which closed today at 0.82 percent, off from 0.83 percent last Thursday, according to Treasury Department data.

The six-month London Interbank Offered Rate was 1.35 percent as of Wednesday, rising from 1.33 percent seven days earlier.

ARM share in the most-recent Mortgage Market Index report was 9.0 percent, widening from 7.7 percent in the previous report.


Sam Garcia founded Mortgage Daily in 1998 and became its full-time publisher in 2000. Before that, he worked in mortgage lending for two decades.

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