Mortgage Daily Logo
mortgage news from industry experts

2014 Origination Outlook Raised

Expectations for next year’s refinance and purchase originations have improved. While 2014’s outlook for government-insured production was also boosted, this year’s government lending forecast was lowered.

Refinance and purchase financing originations are forecasted to fall from $400 billion in the third quarter to $300 billion in the final quarter of this year. First-quarter 2014 volume is projected at $370 billion.

Although the second-half 2013 outlook was unchanged from last month, next year’s first-quarter forecast increased from $330 billion.

Freddie Mac made the predictions in its September 2013 Economic and Housing Market Outlook.

While projected refinance originations of $200 billion in the third quarter and $120 in the fourth quarter were the same as in the previous outlook, expected first-quarter 2014 refinance originations were raised to $167 billion from $149 billion.

Refinance volume was determined by multiplying Freddie’s projected refinance share by total expected originations.

Freddie also left its projection for second-half purchase production unchanged at $200 billion for the third quarter and $180 billion for the fourth quarter. But the first-quarter 2014 forecast was increased to $204 billion from $182 billion.

Freddie has Federal Housing Administration-insured originations coming in at $80 billion this quarter and $65 billion in the final three months of 2013, the same as was expected last month. But the forecast was boosted to $70 billion from $50 billion for the first three months of next year.

The full-year 2013 outlook was left intact at $1.800 trillion, with $1.116 trillion coming from refinances and $0.684 billion coming from purchase financing. The FHA forecast, however, fell to $344 billion from $350 billion.

Freddie lifted next year’s forecast to $1.350 trillion from $1.300 trillion. The refinance outlook increased to $0.554 trillion from $0.520 trillion, and the purchase outlook expanded to $0.797 trillion from $0.780 trillion. Even the FHA outlook increased, to $0.260 trillion from $0.250 trillion.

Refinance share is expected to sink from 62 percent in 2013 to 41 percent next year, while FHA share is projected to rise from 19.11 percent to 19.26 percent in 2014.

Freddie has the share of adjustable-rate mortgages at 10 percent in 2013 and 14 percent next year.

Popular posts

How Long Does It Take to Refinance a Mortgage
How Long Does It Take to Refinance a Mortgage

So, you’re interested in refinancing your mortgage. Maybe you want some extra capital to do that home project you’ve always dreamed of, interest rates are nearing record lows, or you want to start consolidating debt. Regardless of the motivation behind the refinance,...

How Does Refinancing a Mortgage Work
How Does Refinancing a Mortgage Work

A home purchase is considered an investment, and a robust one at that. Savvy owners are constantly looking for new ways to reduce debt, save money, pay less in interest, and ultimately build equity. Refinancing is one way to leverage your investment and do just that....

What Does It Mean to Refinance Your Home
What Does It Mean to Refinance Your Home

You can think of refinancing your mortgage as a debt redo. Essentially, you’ll swap out the existing loan for a new one - ideally with better terms and conditions. Only this time it could help you save money on high mortgage payments, rather than just borrow it....

Setting up the Utilities in My New House
Setting up the Utilities in My New House

All the tedious, time-consuming home closing documents have been signed, sealed, and delivered. Your belongings are packed into what seems like a million boxes and you have a solid plan to haul all your existing furniture to the new place. Just as your boxes and...

When Is My First Mortgage Payment Due?
When Is My First Mortgage Payment Due?

Navigating your way through a brand new mortgage loan can be a difficult task, especially for first time homeowners. After handing over a large sum of money for the down payment and closing costs, it’s important to pay attention to the timing of your first mortgage...

Newsletter

Don’t worry, we don’t spam

calculate your monthly mortgage payment

Related Topics

Helpful Links

Daily mortgage rate trends

Best mortgage lenders

First-time homebuyers programs by state

Loan limits by state

Types of mortgages

APR vs interest rate

Understanding PMI

Related Posts

THE TRUSTED PROVIDER OF ACCURATE RATES AND FINANCIAL INFORMATION