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Outlook Increased for Q2

Mortgage News

The estimate for first-quarter residential production was scaled back, though the forecast was bumped for the remaining three quarters of this year.

Home-loan fundings by U.S. lenders were estimated at $320 billion during the first quarter in Freddie Mac’s Housing Market Forecast for April. That’s less than the $355 billion predicted last month for the first three months of 2011.

But the secondary lender raised its projection for second-quarter production to $320 billion from $296 billion predicted in March.

Government volume is expected to climb to $95 billion in the second quarter from an estimated $85 billion in the prior period. Conventional business, meanwhile, will ease to $225 billion from $235 billion.

The proportion of originations that will be adjustable-rate will be unchanged between the first and second quarters at 6 percent, though the share will increase to 11 percent by the fourth-quarter 2012.

Refinances will account for 60 percent of second-quarter production, lower than 67 percent in the first quarter.

The second-half 2011 forecast was also raised — leaving the annual estimate unchanged at $1.100 trillion.

Next year’s originations are expected to be $1.050 trillion.

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