The latest mortgage production forecast for the third quarter was increased $10 billion — though at the expense of second-quarter activity. After years of declines, U.S. mortgages outstanding are expected to grow in 2013.
Last month, Fannie Mae predicted in its monthly forecast that residential originations by U.S. lenders would fall from $266 billion in the first quarter to $261 billion during the current period.
But Fannie’s Housing Forecast for this month has production climbing from $262 billion to $271 billion. The increase reflects a $21 billion boost from last month in the projection for second-quarter refinance volume.
Total third quarter volume, however, is projected to fall back to $268 billion.
Refinance share is expected to decrease from 60 percent in the first quarter to 35 percent in the second quarter and just under a third in the second half.
Full-year 2011 home-loan fundings are expected to drop to $1.038 trillion from last year’s $1.530 trillion. The previous outlook had this year’s fundings at $1.028 trillion.
Fannie has 2012 production rising to $1.105 trillion and 2013 business reaching $1.321 trillion.
Mortgage debt outstanding is expected to fall to $10.271 trillion in 2011 from $10.546 trillion the previous year. Included in this year’s number are $9.397 trillion in first liens.
Next year’s overall outstandings are forecasted at $10.193 trillion, while the total will turn higher in 2013 to $10.266 trillion.
