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2nd Half Refi Outlook Upped Almost $100 Bil

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The outlook for second-half refinance originations has been raised by nearly $100 billion.

Including purchase and refinance transactions, third-quarter closings by residential lenders were forecasted Friday by the Mortgage Bankers Association at $294 billion, more than the $255 billion estimated by the trade group last month.

The association also increased its expectations for the fourth quarter. Next quarter’s projection was lifted to $223 billion from $171 billion.

The improved outlook for the fourth quarter came despite that the projection for purchase production was cut to $94 billion from $103 billion.

The strengthening was in refinances, with such transactions expected to account for $320 billion of second-half volume versus the $221 billion estimated in the prior report.

MBA has total volume peaking at $262 billion in the second quarter of next year.

Annual originations by U.S. companies are now expected to reach $1.109 trillion compared to $1.018 trillion forecasted in last month’s outlook.

Next year’s total business, however, was trimmed to an estimate of $0.931 trillion from the previous projection of $0.960 trillion.

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