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Mortgage Bankers Up Q3 Origination Outlook

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Mortgage bankers moved up their expectations for residential loan originations during the current quarter — with purchases and refinances both benefiting.

Mortgage firms are expected to close $369 billion in loans during the third quarter. Volume is projected to settle back to $247 billion in the final three months of 2013 then inch up to $251 billion in the first three months of next year.

Last month’s forecast had third-quarter home loan production coming in at $359 billion, while there was no change in projections for the following two quarters.

The predications were made in the latest Mortgage Finance Forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

MBA has purchase financing falling from $180 billion in the third quarter to $136 billion in the fourth quarter. The third-quarter outlook was raised from $176 billion.

Refinance originations, meanwhile, are expected to sink from $189 billion to $111 billion. Last month’s third-quarter forecast was $183 billion in refinances.

The trade group predicts that total residential originations will fall from $1.592 trillion this year to $1.091 trillion in 2014. This year’s expected volume increased from $1.582 trillion projected in July.

The 2013 purchase projection inched up to $0.619 trillion from $0.615 trillion forecasted last month, while there was no change in the $0.703 trillion predicted for 2014.

This year’s refinance forecast rose to $0.973 trillion from $0.967 trillion, and next year’s refinance outlook was unchanged at $0.388 trillion.

Refinance share is expected to drop from 61 percent in 2013 to 36 percent in 2014.

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