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Another Upgrade to Origination Forecast

Mortgage News

A monthly forecast of quarterly mortgage production has been increased for the third consecutive month.

Home-loan production by U.S. residential lenders is projected to be $309 billion in the third quarter. The following period, volume is expected to tumble to $234 billion.

That prediction came from this month’s Mortgage Finance Forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The August edition had volume at just $294 billion in the third quarter and $223 billion in the fourth quarter.

While MBA’s upward revision was the third since June, when third-quarter production was projected to reach just $252 billion, MortgageDaily.com expects that fourth-quarter originations will top $300 billion versus the less than $240 billion projected by the MBA.

This month’s report has refinance volume falling from $201 billion this quarter to $140 billion during the final three months of 2011. That’s a step up, though, from last month’s third-quarter estimate of $191 million in refinance business and fourth-quarter projection of $129 billion.

MBA lifted its third-quarter purchase financing volume estimate to $108 billion from the $103 billion forecasted previously. But expected fourth-quarter purchase volume was unchanged at $94 billion.

The trade group raised its full-year 2011 projection to $1.135 trillion from $1.109 trillion forecasted in August, while next year’s projection was trimmed to $0.925 trillion from $0.931 trillion.

Adjustable-rate mortgages are expected to account for between 6 percent and 7 percent of volume during all of 2011 and 2012.

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