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Quarterly Refi Projection Slashed

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The latest housing forecast has the nation’s fourth-quarter refinance originations coming in $56 billion lower than last month’s projection. The collective U.S. mortgage servicing portfolio continued to contract and is expected to decline further.

From Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, Fannie Mae projects that U.S. residential originations will total $423 billion.

Last month’s housing forecast from the secondary lender had this quarter’s originations at $483 billion.

Fannie slashed its fourth-quarter estimate of refinance originations to $310 billion from last month’s forecast of $366 billion. The purchase forecast was barely lower at $113 billion.

The November forecast has total U.S. originations drifting down to $303 billion in the first three months of next year. Refinances are shouldering the brunt of the decline, with first-quarter 2011 refinances originations expected to be just $195 billion.

This year’s total home-loan production is projected to end at $1.503 trillion, lower than $1.917 trillion originated during 2009. Residential fundings are expected to fall to $1.181 trillion in 2011 then edge down to $1.137 trillion during 2012.

U.S. mortgages outstanding are expected to end 2010 at $10.510 trillion, lower than $10.609 trillion on Sept. 30. By the end of 2011, the outstanding is projected to be just $10.193 trillion — then fall to $10.084 trillion the following year.

First liens are expected to account for $9.527 trillion of the Dec. 31, 2010, total.

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