Mortgage rates today, October 2, 2026, put the 30-year fixed at 7.37% in the latest published Optimal Blue observation, dated Thursday, October 1, down from 7.39% in yesterday’s article, a decline of 2 basis points and the first dip after three straight gains. The 15-year fixed rose to 6.68% from 6.62%, and Bankrate’s national average 5/1 ARM APR sits at 6.56%. The 30-year sits 2 basis points below the top of the past month’s range, which runs from 6.66% to 7.39%, and the September jobs report published October 2 arrived after Thursday’s observation was taken.
Mortgage Rates Today: What’s Trending
Four observations into the week, the 30-year has added 14 basis points, from 7.23% in Friday’s September 25 observation to 7.37% on Thursday, and thirteen straight observations have now printed at or above 7%. At this rate a $400,000 loan costs $2,761 a month in principal and interest, and a $400,000 home with 20% down, a $320,000 loan, costs $2,209; every $100,000 borrowed now costs $690 a month.
Today’s rate in context
A year ago, at 6.26%, that same $400,000 loan cost $2,465 a month, so today’s borrower pays $296 more every month, or $3,552 more over a year. Thursday’s dip was narrow and uneven: the 30-year gave back 2 basis points while the 15-year added 6, so the discount for the shorter term narrowed to 69 basis points from 77 in the September 30 observation. Program pricing split the same way: Optimal Blue’s VA index fell to 7.01% from 7.08% while its FHA index held at 7.10%, and the jumbo index slipped to 7.34%, 3 basis points below the conforming benchmark.
What to do right now
For a buyer with a signed contract, the practical move is to treat any quote dated before Monday as expired: the benchmark has moved 14 basis points in four sessions, about $38 a month on a $400,000 loan, and today’s jobs report, published October 2, can move it again before the next observation prints. Get a fresh quote today and a second one from another lender in the same hour.
Where Rates Are Headed
The climb since the September 3 observation at 6.74% now runs 63 basis points over 19 sessions, with only a handful of down sessions along the way, Thursday’s among them, and the one-year high of 7.39% set in the September 30 observation stands 2 basis points above today’s figure. The 15-year is up on the week, 6.57% to 6.68% between Friday’s September 25 observation and Thursday’s, and its discount to the 30-year stands at 69 basis points.
What could move rates next
The bond market gave the first hint of relief. The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.24% on October 1, down from the 5.29% high set on September 30, according to the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve; the 2-year closed at 4.78%, down from 4.88%, and the 30-year bond at 5.61%. In the October 1 observation the mortgage benchmark sat above the 10-year through a spread of 213 basis points, so the 5-basis-point drop in the 10-year reached mortgage pricing only in part, with the spread a touch wider than the day before.
What is most likely from here
In our view the direction into the weekend now depends on how the bond market digests the jobs report: the 10-year had set a new high in each of three straight sessions through September 30 and then slipped in the October 1 close, and a payroll count as soft as September’s tends to extend that slip. Our weekly forecast called Rising with a Thursday base case of 7.25% and a Friday base case of 7.22%; Thursday’s actual, 7.37%, is 12 basis points above its base case, so the forecast has Thursday’s direction right and the level well short. A quarter-point rise from here would carry a $400,000 loan to $2,830 a month.
What’s Moving the Market
The September jobs report, published October 2, put payroll growth at 29,000 and unemployment at 4.2%, up from 4.1% in August. A print that soft tends to pull Treasury yields down, because the bond market reads it as less room for the Federal Reserve to tighten further; the target range stands at 3.75%–4.00% after the hike at its September 16 meeting. Thursday’s mortgage observation predates the report, so the published index does not reflect it yet.
The driver right now
Inflation is the other half of the Fed’s problem: headline CPI at 3.4%, core CPI at 2.4% and core PCE at 3.0% in the PCE report published September 30 leave little room for a quick reversal, which is why the 10-year stayed above 5.2% even as it closed at 5.24% on October 1. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, published October 1, put the 30-year at 7.28%, up 25 basis points from the prior week, with the daily benchmark 9 basis points above it.
The economic calendar ahead
The calendar now runs to the CPI report on October 14, which covers September, the PCE report on October 29 and the Federal Reserve’s meeting on October 28. Between now and then the bond market’s reading of this morning’s payrolls, and any revisions to them, is the main driver: softer data tends to pull yields down and mortgage pricing with them, and a hotter reading extends the run.
What This Rate Means for Homebuyers
A $400,000 loan costs $2,761 a month in principal and interest at 7.37%, and a $400,000 home with 20% down, a $320,000 loan, runs $2,209. A year ago, at 6.26%, that same $320,000 loan cost $1,972 a month, so today’s borrower pays $237 more every month, or $2,844 more over a year.
Lock or float?
If your closing is inside 45 days, locking still deserves serious consideration: one 2-basis-point dip after three rises does not undo a 63-basis-point climb, and the 10-year is 5 basis points off a one-year high, not a long way from it. A lock trades the chance of a better rate for protection against a worse one, on the lender’s terms. With 60 days or more, floating is a bet that this morning’s soft payrolls hold through revisions and pull yields down; if you take it, agree the lock trigger with the lender in advance and ask what a float-down option would cost on the eventual lock.
Smart shopping moves
Model the payment at 7.37% and at a quarter point higher, $2,830 on the $400,000 loan; the $69 a month between the two is what a quarter point costs, so collect three quotes within the same session before choosing. At this level a seller credit toward closing costs or a temporary buydown can be worth more than a price cut of the same size in the first two years, so ask for it first.
For First-Time Homebuyers
A $300,000 purchase with 5% down is a $285,000 loan, and at 7.37% it costs $1,967 a month in principal and interest before taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance. A $400,000 home with 5% down means a $380,000 loan and about $2,623 a month on the same basis.
Getting in with less down
Program pricing is still above 7%, but the gap to conventional widened a little on Thursday: in the October 1 observation Optimal Blue’s FHA index was 7.10%, 27 basis points below the conforming benchmark, and its VA index 7.01%, 36 below after a 7-basis-point drop on the day. An FHA loan takes 3.5% down with a 580 credit score and 10% down from 500 to 579; VA loans carry no down payment for eligible veterans; USDA loans none in eligible rural areas. The programs’ discount to conventional is what keeps them in the comparison at these levels.
How to compete and win
When a listing draws more than one offer, a fully underwritten pre-approval, with income, assets and credit already verified, carries more weight than a pre-qualification built on stated numbers. Ask the lender to re-issue the letter at today’s rate so the payment inside it is one you can carry. The right home at the right price often matters more than waiting for a perfect rate.
What This Rate Means for Refinancers
The standard refinance example stays negative: a $350,000 balance carried at 7.25% costs $2,388 a month, and the same loan at today’s 7.37% would cost $2,416, $28 more. A borrower holding a rate in the low 7s has nothing to refinance into at this benchmark, and Thursday’s 2-basis-point dip does not change that arithmetic.
Is it worth it yet?
The case opens for rates materially above the benchmark, which at 7.37% means loans written at roughly 8.25% and up, and even then the break-even is closing costs divided by the monthly saving; a refinance also restarts the 30-year clock, so a borrower deep into the old schedule can lower the payment and still pay more in total interest. Closing costs, the monthly saving and how long you keep the loan decide it, not the headline rate.
Cash-out versus rate-and-term
Cash-out at 7.37% is a debt decision rather than a rate decision: it can still make sense for retiring balances that cost far more, such as credit cards, and rarely for discretionary spending that turns a short-term cost into a 30-year one. Rate-and-term borrowers are waiting, and the same arithmetic will show the moment the benchmark drops back below the rate they hold.
For Real Estate Investors
Illustrative investor pricing, assuming roughly 60 basis points above today’s conforming benchmark of 7.37%, would put the rate near 7.97%, with monthly principal and interest on a $225,000 loan at $1,646. A deal priced on last week’s quote is 14 basis points behind the benchmark; re-quote before you re-offer, and treat today’s jobs report as a reason to re-quote again next week rather than proof that waiting pays.
Making the numbers work
Cap rate, gross rent multiplier and cash-on-cash return at the locked rate, with a vacancy month in the model, decide whether a property still works with financing near 8%. The consolation is thinner competition: each week above 7% removes more rate-sensitive owner-occupant bidders from the same listings, and an investor with reserves can use that.
Alternative financing options
DSCR loans, underwritten on the property’s rental income, price above conventional investor loans, and bridge or hard-money financing costs several points more again; they solve specific problems, not the rate. Model the exit at the rate the lender will lock now, not at the rate you hope the next jobs report brings.
Quick Tips by Buyer Type
15-Year vs 30-Year: Which Is Right for You?
A $350,000 loan over 30 years at 7.37% costs $2,416 a month and $519,821 in total interest; the same loan over 15 years at 6.68% costs $3,084 a month and $205,051 in interest. The shorter term costs $668 more each month and saves $314,770 over the life of the loan.
Who the 15-year fits
The 15-year’s discount to the 30-year narrowed to 69 basis points on Thursday from 77 the day before, because the 15-year rose while the 30-year slipped; that makes the shorter term a little less of a bargain than it was in the September 30 observation, though at 6.68% it remains a powerful wealth-building tool for a household with stable income, a real reserve and a career far enough along that the higher payment is not a stretch.
Why most pick the 30-year
The 30-year remains the right loan for most households because it keeps the payment survivable: the lower figure protects cash flow, and one extra principal payment a year captures a large part of the 15-year’s benefit without the obligation. For a first-time buyer stretching to get in at 7.37%, the 30-year is almost always the more prudent choice, and the shorter term can come later through a refinance if rates fall and income grows.
What the Jobs Report Could Do to Your Rate
The October 2 jobs report landed at 8:30 a.m. Eastern with the 30-year at 7.37% going in: September payrolls grew by 29,000 and unemployment rose to 4.2%. A payroll count that small tends to pull Treasury yields down, because the bond market reads it as less room for the Federal Reserve to tighten further; the 10-year had already closed at 5.24% on October 1, down from its 5.29% high set on September 30, and the mortgage benchmark sat 213 basis points above it.
What it means for you
What that could mean for a rate quote is narrower than the headline suggests. A 10-basis-point drop in the 10-year, if lenders pass it through, is worth roughly 10 basis points on a 30-year quote and about $27 a month on a $400,000 loan; the 14-basis-point rise over the past week shows what the opposite case looks like. Lenders also tend to pass declines through more slowly than increases while volatility is high, which is why the spread widened to 213 basis points even on a down day for yields.
What would change it
The practical reading: Thursday’s observation does not include the report, so a quote taken later today can differ from the published index in either direction. Ask the lender for the quote’s time stamp, compare it with the 7.37% benchmark, and if yields fall through the session, re-quote before Monday; if they rebound, the one-year high of 7.39% set on September 30 is back in play.
Rate Lock Tips
The Bottom Line
Mortgage rates today stand at 7.37% for the 30-year fixed in the last published market observation, dated Thursday, October 1, down from 7.39% the day before, a move of 2 basis points and the first decline after three straight rises; that is 2 basis points under the top of the past month’s range, which runs from 6.66% to 7.39%. A $400,000 loan costs $2,761 a month. With the 10-year Treasury at 5.24% and a soft jobs report published October 2, we see a better chance of relief than at any point this week, but one soft print does not reverse a 63-basis-point climb: lock if you close inside 30 to 45 days; with 60 days or more, floating is a bet that today’s yields hold lower, and a float-down on the eventual lock is worth pricing.
Your move
Homebuyers: get a fresh quote today and model the payment at 7.37% and at 7.62%. Refinancers: unless the rate you hold is well above 7.37%, the arithmetic does not work at this benchmark; run the break-even with real closing costs before paying for an application. Investors: underwrite at the rate the lender will lock, and keep the vacancy month in the model.
What to watch next
Watch how the bond market closes out the week after the jobs report published October 2; then the CPI report on October 14, which covers September, the PCE report on October 29 and the Federal Reserve’s meeting on October 28. Stay in contact with your lender and make sure you understand your lock window before any key data releases.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are mortgage rates today for a 30-year fixed?
Mortgage rates today for a 30-year fixed average 7.37%. Rates vary by lender and depend on factors like credit score, down payment, and loan amount.
What are mortgage rates today for a 15-year fixed?
Mortgage rates today for a 15-year fixed average 6.68%. This shorter term typically offers lower rates but higher monthly payments.
Should I lock in mortgage rates today?
Whether to lock in mortgage rates today depends on your timeline and risk tolerance. With 30-year rates at 7.37%, consider locking if you’re closing within 30-60 days and are comfortable with current rates.
How do I get the best mortgage rates today?
To get the best mortgage rates today, compare quotes from at least 3 lenders, lock your rate when you’re comfortable, and improve your credit score before applying. With current 30-year rates at 7.37%, even a 0.25% difference saves thousands over the life of the loan.
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30-year and 15-year figures are note rates from Optimal Blue. The 5/1 ARM figure is Bankrate’s national average APR from its daily survey of large lenders, as of October 2, 2026; the sources use different methodologies and date bases and are not directly comparable. Sources & further reading: Optimal Blue (OBMMI) via FRED, U.S. Treasury (DGS10) via FRED, BLS CPI and Employment Situation, BEA PCE, the Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac PMMS, and Bankrate (5/1 ARM APR).
