Mortgage Daily Logo

Mortgage Rates Inch Up, Could Rise More


Mortgage rates, which seem to be currently focused on the federal government shutdown, inched up for the first time in more than a month and could accelerate.

For the first time in five weeks, average rates on fixed-rate 30-year mortgages moved higher — to 4.23 percent in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ended Oct. 10 from 4.22 percent seven days earlier.

The 30 year has substantially increased from a year earlier, when Freddie’s weekly survey indicated that it averaged only 3.39 percent.

“Mortgage rates were little changed amid the federal debt impasse in Washington, D.C., and a light week of economic data releases,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft explained in the report. “Of the few releases, the private sector added an estimated 166,000 jobs in September, which were fewer than the market consensus and followed a downward revision of 17,000 workers in August, according to the ADP Research Institute. The Institute for Supply Management reported a greater slowing in growth in the non-manufacturing industry in September than the market consensus forecast.”

But stiff partisan differences appeared to be softening on Thursday — invigorating investors, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 323 points and driving bond prices lower.

A Mortgage Daily analysis of this week’s Treasury market activity has mortgage rates heading around 5 BPS higher by Freddie’s next report.

During the days that Freddie surveyed primary lenders for this week’s report, the 10-year Treasury yield averaged 2.66 percent, while it closed at 2.71 percent Thursday, according to Treasury Department data.

However, given that the federal budget impasse is still not resolved, markets remain volatile and rates could behave erratically.

Half of this week’s Bankrate panelists predicted that mortgage rates won’t move more than 2 BPS over the next week or so. Another 42 percent projected a decline, and just 8 percent forecasted an increase.

The National Association of Federal Credit Unions forecasts that 30-year rates will average 4.5 percent for all of 2013 and 5.0 percent next year.

The spread between conforming and jumbo mortgages was just over 31 BPS in the U.S. Mortgage Market Index report from LoanSifter and Mortgage Daily for the week ended Oct. 4. The jumbo-conforming spread was little changed from seven days prior, when it was just under 31 BPS.

A 2-basis-point rise from the week ended Oct. 3 left 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaging 3.31 percent in Freddie’s report. Rates on 15-year loans were 92 BPS higher than on 30-year mortgages compared to a 93-basis-point spread last week.

The NAFCU forecast has 15-year mortgages averaging 3.5 percent in 2013 and 4.0 percent in 2014.

Freddie said the average for five-year, Treasury-indexed, hybrid, adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 3.05 percent from the previous week’s 3.03 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 2.64 percent, 1 basis point more than in the previous report and 5 BPS worse than in Freddie’s survey for the week ended Oct. 11, 2012.

The underlying index for the one-year ARM, the yield on the one-year Treasury note, soared to 0.14 percent today from 0.11 percent a week earlier, according to the Treasury Department.

No change was reported from last week by for the six-month London Interbank Offered Rate, which was 0.37 percent Wednesday.

ARM share was lower in the latest Mortgage Market Index report, retreating to 9.8 percent from the previous week’s 10.6 percent.

Related Posts

Mortgage Rates Up 92 BPS From Year Ago

Mortgage Rates Up 92 BPS From Year Ago

Over the past year, weekly fixed interest rates on single-family loans have soared 92 basis points. But little change was reported from last week, and more of the same is expected. On conventional loans utilized to finance a home purchase with amounts up to the...

Mortgage Rates Up 92 BPS From Year Ago

Mortgage Rate Forecasts Have Little Change Ahead

Thirty-year mortgage rates moved lower this past week and this past month. Short- and long-term forecasts have little movement ahead for mortgage rates. Ellie Mae Inc.'s Origination Insight Report | September 2018 indicated that average 30-year note rates on...

Mortgage Rates Up 92 BPS From Year Ago

Mortgage Rates Soar, Could Sink in Next Report

An expected surge in mortgage rates came to fruition this week. The latest forecast has fixed rates tumbling in next week's report. A new index for adjustable-rate mortgages moved lower. A stunning 19-basis-point surge from the preceding week left average 30-year...

Mortgage Rates Up 92 BPS From Year Ago

Mortgage Rates Dip, But Likely to Skyrocket

Mortgage rates retreated a modest amount just one week after climbing to a seven-year high. The next rate report, however, is likely to reflect significant escalation. Prospective 30-year borrowers using the LendingTree network during September were offered an average...

Mortgage Rates Up 92 BPS From Year Ago

Mortgage Rates Little Changed, More of Same Ahead

Over the past week, there was little change in interest rates on home loans. During the next week, more of the same is likely. Recently rising rates have helped the Federal Home Loan Banks' earnings. Conventional mortgages with conforming loan amounts used to finance...

Popular posts

How Long Does It Take to Refinance a Mortgage
How Long Does It Take to Refinance a Mortgage

So, you’re interested in refinancing your mortgage. Maybe you want some extra capital to do that home project you’ve always dreamed of, interest rates are nearing record lows, or you want to start consolidating debt. Regardless of the motivation behind the refinance,...

How Does Refinancing a Mortgage Work
How Does Refinancing a Mortgage Work

A home purchase is considered an investment, and a robust one at that. Savvy owners are constantly looking for new ways to reduce debt, save money, pay less in interest, and ultimately build equity. Refinancing is one way to leverage your investment and do just that....

What Does It Mean to Refinance Your Home
What Does It Mean to Refinance Your Home

You can think of refinancing your mortgage as a debt redo. Essentially, you’ll swap out the existing loan for a new one - ideally with better terms and conditions. Only this time it could help you save money on high mortgage payments, rather than just borrow it....

Setting up the Utilities in My New House
Setting up the Utilities in My New House

All the tedious, time-consuming home closing documents have been signed, sealed, and delivered. Your belongings are packed into what seems like a million boxes and you have a solid plan to haul all your existing furniture to the new place. Just as your boxes and...

When Is My First Mortgage Payment Due?
When Is My First Mortgage Payment Due?

Navigating your way through a brand new mortgage loan can be a difficult task, especially for first time homeowners. After handing over a large sum of money for the down payment and closing costs, it’s important to pay attention to the timing of your first mortgage...


Don’t worry, we don’t spam